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Changes in rainfall patterns are expected to have negative impacts across all sectors in Turkey. Rising temperatures are causing precipitation to fall more as rain rather than snow, and snow cover is melting earlier in the year. This reduces water infiltration into the soil while increasing surface runoff. Lower soil moisture negatively affects dry farming. In irrigated agriculture, the timing of water availability is increasingly out of sync with when it is most needed. This increases the demand for water storage, but the longer water remains in reservoirs, the more is lost through evaporation. As a result, water resources are under strain, which in turn places additional stress on agriculture and the energy sector.

Livestock farming is also expected to suffer, particularly due to the decline in dry farming and reduced productivity of grazing lands. Studies show that livestock production in Turkey is at increasing risk from climate change. Drought and land degradation are expected to further reduce the availability and quality of pasture areas.

'Turkey’s cities lack green spaces'

Turkey’s cities are generally poor in green spaces. In other words, most urban areas in Turkey have not adopted the concept of “sponge cities.” As a result, they are more vulnerable to heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of urban floods and waterlogging. These events can lead to significant loss of life and property.

Research shows that marginalized and low-income communities, particularly those living in urban slums, are the most vulnerable to climate-related risks in cities.

What is a sponge city?

The “Sponge City” concept has emerged as a sustainable urban planning model to address flooding and water management issues caused by climate change and rapid urbanization. Cities like Wuhan in China, Singapore, and Rotterdam in the Netherlands are leading examples of this approach.

By incorporating green roofs, rain gardens, and permeable pavements, sponge cities reduce flood risks while protecting underground water resources. They promote sustainable living by improving water management and increasing biodiversity.

Looking at the pace of climate change in Turkey, which period do you consider the most critical?

Climate change can be described as a trend. Temperatures rise, and rainfall tends to either decrease or increase. For this reason, the most critical period is always the one that lies ahead. Tomorrow will be tougher than today, and the day after tomorrow tougher than tomorrow. This is the nature of climate as reflected in long-term averages.

However, because climate can vary from year to year, there may be occasional periods when a given year is cooler or wetter than the previous one. These anomalies are sometimes misinterpreted. Yet as long as the trend of warming and changing precipitation continues driven by greenhouse gas emissions the most critical period will always be the one that follows.

Considering human-driven climate change, where do Turkey’s society and public institutions fall short?

There is a general understanding in Turkey of how climate change is developing and what its impacts are likely to be. Existing studies provide a clear picture of the situation. However, the next step, conducting vulnerability and risk analyses and implementing adaptation strategies, has not yet been fully completed across all sectors. Work in this area is still ongoing.

Public institutions have commissioned projects and reports on climate change, but when it comes to implementing the recommendations of these reports, progress is often slow. This is partly due to uncertainties in the studies themselves, but more often it results from decision-makers and policymakers prioritizing other agendas.

This is the case even though Turkey is recognized as one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. At the societal level, there is still a lack of sufficient knowledge and awareness about climate change. As a result, there is not enough public pressure on policymakers to advance adaptation strategies and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.