Overview and Background

On July 9, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump plans to implement a new set of tariffs on various trading partners, following a 90-day pause aimed at negotiating trade deals. The tariffs, which may reach up to 70%, are set to take effect on August 1, 2025, affecting countries that do not secure agreements with the U.S. by the deadline. Trump indicated that letters notifying countries of their specific tariff rates would begin to be sent out on July 6, with expectations that all countries would be notified by the July 9 deadline.

Trump's administration has been negotiating with several economies, including Indonesia, South Korea, and the European Union, to resolve contentious issues. The new tariffs would be significantly higher than previously announced rates, which ranged from a 10% baseline to a maximum of 50%. The potential impact on the U.S. economy, as estimated by Bloomberg Economics, could see average duties on imports rise from approximately 3% to 20%.

Key Findings

• Trump plans to send out 10 to 12 letters notifying countries of new tariffs starting July 6, 2025.
• Tariffs could range from 10% to 70%, with higher rates for nations that fail to negotiate deals.
• Countries such as Vietnam and the UK have reached tentative agreements, while negotiations with Japan and the EU are ongoing.
• The Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting interest rates due to potential inflation from tariffs.
• Economic forecasts indicate that sustained high tariffs could significantly impact global GDP and inflation rates.

“They’ll start to pay on August 1. The money will start coming into the United States on August 1.” - Donald Trump

As the deadline approaches, countries are racing to finalize agreements to avoid steep tariffs, with ongoing negotiations reflecting the urgency of the situation. The outcomes of these discussions could have lasting implications for global trade dynamics and economic stability.