Overview and Background

Karol Nawrocki, a candidate from the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS), has won the Polish presidential election held on June 1, 2025, securing 50.89% of the votes against liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.11%. Both candidates cast their votes in Warsaw earlier that day, surrounded by family, before heading to their respective results parties. The election is notable for its narrow margin and the significant political implications for Poland.

This election is considered one of the closest since Poland transitioned away from communism in 1989. Nawrocki's victory is seen as a resurgence for the PiS party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023 before losing parliamentary power. His campaign emphasized traditional values and included controversial elements of his past, including allegations of involvement in street brawls and connections to criminal figures, which he has denied.

Key Findings

• Election Outcome: Karol Nawrocki won with 50.89% of the votes, defeating Rafał Trzaskowski.
• Political Implications: Nawrocki's presidency may lead to a more populist and nationalist agenda, impacting Poland's foreign policy and legislative process.
• International Relations: Nawrocki has expressed support for Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict with Russia but has also criticized Ukrainian leadership.
• Future Governance: The election results could complicate the legislative agenda for Prime Minister Donald Tusk's coalition government, which may face increased challenges in implementing reforms.

"I am simply one of you," Nawrocki told voters, positioning himself as a candidate connected to the public's concerns.

The election's outcome poses significant questions regarding Poland's political landscape and its relationship with the European Union, especially given the recent tensions surrounding migration and economic issues. Nawrocki's presidency signals a potential shift in governance styles and priorities that may influence both domestic and international policies.