Overview and Background

The NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 24-25, 2025, is set against a backdrop of escalating tensions regarding defense spending and relations with Russia. The summit will feature 32 heads of state, including U.S. President Donald Trump, amidst growing concerns about the alliance's unity and commitment to collective security. The Trump administration has pressured NATO allies to increase defense spending to at least 5% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a significant rise from the current 2% benchmark. This demand has sparked debate among member states, particularly those with economic constraints.

Key Findings

• Increased Defense Spending: NATO allies are expected to agree to raise annual defense spending to a minimum of 5% of GDP by 2035, with at least 3.5% allocated to traditional military expenditures.
• Public Support: A survey indicated strong support for increased defense spending in countries like Poland (70%) and Denmark (70%), while Italy showed significant opposition (57%).
• Military Service: Many Europeans favor reintroducing mandatory military service, especially in countries like France (62%) and Germany (53%), although younger demographics largely oppose this idea.
• European Security Autonomy: A majority of Europeans believe it would be difficult for the EU to achieve defense independence from the U.S., with only Denmark showing a slight majority in favor of autonomy.
• Support for Ukraine: Most Europeans oppose U.S. pressure to cede Ukrainian territories to Russia and advocate for continued support for Ukraine against Russian aggression.

The summit is crucial not only for addressing defense spending but also for determining NATO's collective stance towards Russia, especially as the Trump administration has shown a tendency to prioritize bilateral relations with Moscow over traditional alliances. The outcomes of this meeting could significantly impact European defense strategies and the future of transatlantic relations.

“Europe is facing a decision point, a crossroads,” said Doug Lute, a former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, highlighting the urgency of the summit's discussions.