Overview and Background

The recent conflict between Israel and Iran, which lasted 12 days, has raised questions regarding the effectiveness of Israel's military objectives. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initially stated that the goals were to "decapitate the nuclear program" and achieve "regime change" in Iran. However, following a ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, evidence suggests that these objectives were not met. Reports indicate that Iran moved critical nuclear materials from the attacked Fordow facility, undermining claims of successful military action.

Despite extensive bombing campaigns, including U.S. support with bunker-busting bombs, the extent of damage to Iran's nuclear capabilities remains unclear due to restricted access for assessments. Furthermore, Israel's strategy of targeting military leaders in Iran aimed at inciting internal uprisings appears to have backfired, as these actions instead unified public support for the Iranian regime.

Key Findings

• Military Objectives Unmet: Israel did not achieve its stated goals of destroying Iran's nuclear program or instigating regime change.
• International Response: While some world leaders supported U.S. strikes on Iran, there was no consensus on Israel's demands regarding uranium enrichment.
• Domestic Impact: The conflict has led to significant casualties in both Iran and Israel, with Iranian missiles successfully penetrating Israeli defenses, causing civilian casualties.
• Public Sentiment: Many Iranians express skepticism about the ceasefire's longevity, fearing further violence and government repression in response to the conflict.
• Future Outlook: Analysts suggest that the conflict may lead to increased tensions rather than a resolution, with both sides remaining on high alert.

The aftermath of the conflict has left Iran with a damaged economy and significant military losses, yet the regime has not been destabilized. In contrast, Israel faces challenges, including casualties from Iranian missile strikes and a struggling economy. The situation remains precarious, with both nations poised for potential future confrontations.