Overview and Background

The first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years are set to occur in Istanbul, Türkiye, on Thursday. This meeting follows an offer made by Russian President Vladimir Putin to resume dialogue aimed at achieving a lasting settlement to the ongoing conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed his willingness to attend, despite previously ruling out negotiations with Moscow unless directly engaging with Putin.

The last talks between the two nations took place in April 2022, also in Istanbul. Following those discussions, Russia accused Ukraine of backtracking on agreements made, leading to increased tensions. The context of these upcoming talks is further complicated by a recent proposal from U.S. President Donald Trump advocating for a ceasefire and direct negotiations.

Key Developments

• The direct talks in Istanbul will be the first since April 2022, when Russia accused Ukraine of not adhering to agreements.
• Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva plans to urge Putin to attend the peace talks during his visit to Moscow.
• Putin has announced he will send a delegation to the talks, led by adviser Vladimir Medinsky, rather than attending personally.
• Zelensky stated he would only negotiate with Putin, raising concerns about the effectiveness of a lower-level Russian delegation.
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials are expected to attend the talks, emphasizing the West's interest in a resolution.

"If Putin does not arrive and plays games, it is the final point that he does not want to end the war," said Zelensky.

Brazil and China recently issued a joint statement calling for immediate dialogue to resolve the conflict, highlighting international interest in the negotiations. Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia is preparing for a military offensive, complicating the negotiations and raising questions about Moscow's commitment to peace.

This meeting in Istanbul represents a critical moment for both leaders, with the potential to influence the trajectory of the conflict that has resulted in significant casualties and geopolitical ramifications since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.