By Assoc. Prof. Dr. Anıl Çağlar ERKAN
The Russia-Ukraine War that commenced in February 2022 has not merely remained a regional conflict but has served as a catalyst that fundamentally transformed global energy security paradigms. This war has emerged as a multidimensional crisis that has redefined the traditional definitions and parameters of energy security, expanded the dimensions of energy diplomacy, and transformed the structure of international energy markets.
Prior to the Russia-Ukraine War, the concept of energy security was predominantly defined within the triangle of supply security, reasonable prices, and infrastructure stability. However, as the conflict progressed, the deficiencies of this traditional definition became evident, and the concept acquired new dimensions. Primarily, the direct impact of energy dependency on national security transformed from theoretical discussions to practical realities. The high dependence of European countries on natural gas from Russia demonstrated the potential of energy resources being utilized as a geopolitical weapon. This situation necessitated the re-evaluation of the energy security concept not only in economic terms but also within the context of national security and geopolitics.
With the war, the multi-layered nature of energy security became evident. Energy security is now perceived as a multidimensional structure that encompasses not only the continuity of physical supply but also the diversification of supply chains, the development of alternative energy sources, and the protection of energy infrastructure against cyber attacks. In this context, the evolution of the energy security concept necessitated a reassessment of the complex dependency relationships of globalization in the energy sector.
One of the most significant effects of the Russia-Ukraine War is the paradigm shift it created in Europe's energy policy. Prior to the conflict, European Union countries were highly dependent on natural gas from Russia, and projects such as Nord Stream 1 and 2 were designed to further increase this dependency. However, with the conflict, it became apparent that the risks this dependency would create in terms of strategic security could no longer be ignored.
With the commencement of the war, European countries took rapid and comprehensive steps to reduce their energy dependency on Russia. Investments in LNG (liquefied natural gas) infrastructure were increased, agreements with alternative suppliers such as the United States and Qatar were signed, and the transition to renewable energy sources was accelerated. For instance, Germany's increase of its natural gas storage capacity to 95% within 2022 and the establishment of expedited LNG terminals in the Baltic Sea are concrete indicators of this paradigm shift.
In this process, Europe's energy policy has been reshaped along three fundamental axes: diversification, resilience, and sustainability. Diversification refers to reducing dependency on a single supplier; resilience refers to the ability of energy systems to maintain functionality during times of crisis; and sustainability refers to accelerating the transition to green energy. This tri-axial approach symbolizes the shift in Europe's understanding of energy security from economic rationality to strategic autonomy.
The Russia-Ukraine War has also led to profound changes in the structural dynamics of global energy markets. The sudden increases in oil and natural gas prices observed with the commencement of the war have revealed the structural vulnerabilities of global energy markets. This situation has demonstrated the potential threats of instability in energy prices on global economic security.
In the process of restructuring energy markets, new trade routes and partnerships have emerged. Russia has turned to Asian countries such as China and India to compensate for the decline in exports to the West, indicating a shift in the axis of global energy geopolitics. Simultaneously, Europe's orientation towards alternative suppliers such as Norway, Algeria, and the United States has altered the geographical distribution of global energy trade.
Another noteworthy aspect in this process is the acceleration of energy transition. The increase in investments in renewable energy sources, the rise in interest in alternative energy carriers such as hydrogen, and the proliferation of energy efficiency projects are indicators of this transformation. This situation suggests that the central role of fossil fuels in international relations may diminish in the long term.
Another significant impact of the Russia-Ukraine War is the expansion of the parameters of energy diplomacy. Prior to the conflict, energy diplomacy was generally viewed as a process conducted within the framework of bilateral relations and prioritizing economic benefit. However, with the war, energy diplomacy has transformed into a multi-layered field that encompasses dimensions such as national security, geostrategic positioning, and value-based alliances.
In this context, energy diplomacy has now become a strategic process conducted not only among economic actors but also among blocs with different security paradigms. For instance, the EU's energy sanctions against Russia have been utilized as a normative and value-based foreign policy tool beyond economic rationality. This situation indicates that energy diplomacy is evolving from traditional pragmatic approaches to normative approaches.
Additionally, the geographical scope of energy diplomacy has also expanded. For example, Europe's intensification of energy diplomacy initiatives in the Persian Gulf, Caucasus, and Mediterranean regions demonstrates that energy security has become a phenomenon that transcends regional boundaries. This situation reveals that energy security should now be viewed as one of the fundamental parameters of the global governance system.
The Russia-Ukraine War has, ironically, served as a catalyst accelerating the global energy transition. The energy crisis created by the war has highlighted the risks posed by dependence on fossil fuels from both economic and geopolitical perspectives and has led to the strengthening of policies supporting the transition to renewable energy sources.
The European Union's REPowerEU plan is one of the most prominent examples of this process. This plan aims to increase the share of renewable energy sources, improve energy efficiency, and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Similarly, many countries have increased their investments in areas such as green hydrogen production and the expansion of wind and solar energy capacities to enhance energy security.
Another noteworthy aspect in this process is the strengthening of the synergy between energy security and combating climate change. Although these two areas were previously thought to have tension between them, the crisis created by the Russia-Ukraine War has demonstrated that one of the most effective ways to enhance energy security is to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. This situation has led to a more integrated approach to energy security and climate policies.
The Russia-Ukraine War has once again demonstrated that energy security is a multidimensional and interdisciplinary concept. Energy security is now being evaluated not only in terms of physical infrastructure and supply continuity but also in relation to dimensions such as cybersecurity, financial stability, environmental sustainability, and societal resilience.
Particularly, the cybersecurity of energy infrastructures has gained even more importance with the war. The increase in cyber attacks targeting critical energy infrastructures has demonstrated that the digital dimension of energy security is also of strategic importance. This situation reveals that the concept of energy security needs to be continuously redefined in line with technological developments and new threat vectors.
Additionally, the societal dimension of energy security has also become more prominent with the war. The societal impacts of rising energy prices, the risk of energy poverty, and the social costs of energy transition constitute the sociopolitical dimensions of energy security. This situation demonstrates that energy security policies should be evaluated not only from technical and economic perspectives but also from the perspective of social justice and equality.
The impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War on global energy security will be long-term, even if the war itself ends. This conflict has constituted a turning point in the evolution of the energy security concept. Energy security is now perceived as a multidimensional, interdisciplinary, and dynamic concept.
Within the framework of this new paradigm, the success of energy security policies will depend on the extent to which parameters such as geopolitical sensitivity, strategic foresight, environmental responsibility, and social justice are integrated, beyond technical and economic factors. Simultaneously, ensuring energy security will be possible not only at the national level but also through the strengthening of regional and global cooperation mechanisms.
In conclusion, the energy crisis created by the Russia-Ukraine War will go down in history as a fundamental reference point shaping the energy geopolitics of the 21st century. This crisis has demonstrated that energy security should be addressed with a holistic approach encompassing not only economic and technical issues but also elements such as national security, geopolitics, environmental sustainability, and societal resilience. In this context, the energy security paradigm of the future will be shaped as a multidimensional structure based on the principles of diversification, resilience, sustainability, and justice.
